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Yes, I know the WAC has put two teams into BCS bowls the past two seasons, but I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that the Mountain West has NOT been the best non-BCS league the last few years, especially since TCU joined the league in 2005.
I’m one of those that believes the top tier of this league – BYU, Utah, and TCU – could hang if they were in a BCS conference. The league has done pretty well in such head-to-head games: the MWC won 7 games against BCS teams from last year, the same number as the SEC and Big East (not including bowl games).
Utah had two such wins, crushing UCLA and winning at Louisville. BYU beat Arizona and also beat UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl after losing in Pasadena in September. The other four wins? TCU shutout Baylor, New Mexico won at Arizona, Wyoming thumped Virginia, and Air Force smoked Notre Dame. Granted, those wins are over some pretty bad teams, but still, I feel BYU, Utah, and TCU would be middle-of-the-pack type teams if they were in a BCS conference (other than the SEC, probably).
The MWC had 7 wins against BCS teams last year (tied for the most) and Utah had two, including a romp over UCLA
Since 2005, when TCU joined the MWC, those three teams have been consistently at the top of the standings. I know Air Force finished second last year at 6-2 (TCU was just 4-4), but coming into 2008 there’s a pretty significant drop-off between those three and the middle of the league.
BYU has won the MWC the past two seasons, going 11-2 and winning the Las Vegas Bowl in both years. Some media outlets have BYU in the preseason top 15, and many think the Cougars, with nine returning starters on a very potent offense, may be the non-BCS Cinderella team this year. The schedule at first glance looks compatible, but among trips to Washington, Utah, and TCU (BYU also hosts UCLA), there’s a loss in there.
BYU has won two straight MWC titles and, thanks to this blocked FG as time expired, two straight Las Vegas Bowls over Pac-10 opponents
For Utah, injuries to QB Brian Johnson (missed all of 2005 and parts of last year) have adversely effected the Utes’ MWC title hopes in the past. Despite losing 51 starts last year due to injury, the Utes still managed to go 9-4 and win their 7th consecutive bowl game, the second-longest such streak in college football (Boston College leads with 8).
Utah’s been a little inconsistent however – in a three-game stretch last year, Utah lost at home to Air Force, smoked UCLA (#11 at that time), and were then shutout at UNLV (the Rebels’ only conference win). Utah has lost to BYU on the final possession the past two years, but get the Cougars at home (TCU too) in the season finale. Utah could very well upset Michigan in the opener, and also host Oregon State. So while BYU garners more national preseason attention, Utah could very well be the Boise State/Hawaii of 2008.
BYU beat Utah 33-31 in 2006 like this…
…and last year with these two plays down 10-9 late in the game
TCU won the MWC in its first year of being in the league, going undefeated in 2005 with an 11-1 record including a win at Oklahoma (they visit Norman this year as well) and a top 15 finish. The Frogs were just 4-4 last year, but outscored MWC opponents by 67 points. With the most returning starters and potentially the best defense in the MWC, TCU is also in the mix for a league title. The red flag, though, is TCU is just 1-5 in Thursday games the last 3 years, and play BYU at home and at Utah – both on Thursdays.
Behind these three teams, though, it gets a little murky. New Mexico has been consistently decent under head coach Rocky Long, with a seven-year streak of being bowl-eligible. However, the Lobos return just 10 starters this year, though two of them are QB Donovan Porterie and HB Rodney Ferguson. Air Force went 6-2 last year thanks to a 3-1 record in games decided by 8 points or less, but they return just 8 starters under second-year head coach Troy Calhoun, including having to replace QB Shaun Carney and the top 6 rushers from last year.
Air Force was a surprise, finishing second last year with a win at Notre Dame, but the Falcons should struggle this season
Wyoming has gone 6-6 and 5-7 the past two seasons, but return 8 offensive starters. Despite just a 5-13 record the second half of the past three years, Wyoming could be the league’s fourth-best team in ‘08, which would have them bowling. UNLV has won just three MWC the past three seasons, but return 14 starters – nine on offense – and get Wyoming, Air Force, and New Mexico all at home.
San Diego State returns just 11 starters – just three on offense (the Aztecs lose their leading passer, rushers, and top two WRs) – from a 4-8 team. SDSU likely won’t win a MWC road game (TCU, New Mexico, Wyoming, BYU) and should be in the league’s bottom half. Steve Fairchild replaces longtime coach Sonny Lubick at Colorado State, and the Rams must find a new QB, new WRs, and replace six starters on a defense that allowed 31 points/game last season.
Here’s a little more in-depth look…
UTAH
Last Year: 9-4, won opening bowl game – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
HB Darrell Mack looks to lead Utah to an MWC title and possible BCS Bowl in ‘08
Reasons for Optimism: QB Brian Johnson and HB Darrell Mack, both 2nd Team All-MWC last year, return, along with WRs Marquis Wilson and Bradon Godfrey and 83 career OL starts. Three of last year’s tackles leaders – LB Stevenson Sylvester and DEs Koa Misi and Paul Kruger – and both CBs return. Host both BYU and TCU.
Concerns: LB depth – Utah did not recruit any – is a concern. Can the Utes avoid injury bug this year? Can Johnson start every game? Utah also has to find a way to finish off BYU.
BYU
Last Year: 11-2, MWC Champs, 2nd straight Vegas Bowl win – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Returning QB Max Hall leads a potent BYU offense that has many calling for a Cougar three-peat and a BCS Bowl
Reasons for Optimism: QB Max Hall, HB Harvey Unga (over 1,200 yards last year), top two receivers (WR Austin Collie and TE Dennis Pitta), 4 OL starters all return to form what should be the league’s best offense. The projected starting OL averages 326 lbs, and the Cougars have one of the best DL in the league as well.
Question Marks: Only 3 defensive starters – not including DE Jan Jorgensen and MLB David Nixon – are back, the LBs are inexperienced and BYU will have an entirely new secondary. They play Utah and TCU both on the road.
TCU
Last Year: 8-5, won Texas Bowl – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
TCU HB Aaron Brown battled through injuries last year, but looks to lead the Horned Frogs to their second MWC title since joining the league in 2005
Reasons for Optimism: 15 Frog starters return (including QB Andy Dalton, HBs Aaron Brown and Joseph Turner, 4 full-time OL starters, 3 DL, and both CBs), the most in the MWC. TCU always has good defenses.
Concerns: TCU’s lost 8 games since joining the MWC, 5 of which were Thursday games. TCU plays Utah and BYU on Thursdays this year. Despite that, I see no real weakness – solid team everywhere.
NEW MEXICO
Last Year: 9-4, won home bowl game – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
HB Rodney Ferguson, 1st Team All-MWC the past two years, looks to lead UNM to another bowl game in 2008
Reasons for Optimism: UNM is the only MWC team to have 6+ wins for 7 straight years. QB Donovan Porterie and 1st Team All-MWC HB Rodney Ferguson return, and the Lobos have one of the league’s top secondaries.
Concerns: Just 10 returning starters – the front seven is filled with inexperience and there are just 14 career starts returning in the 3-deep OL, the second lowest in I-A.
WYOMING
Last Year: 5-7 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Wyoming HB Devin Moore should be part of a solid Wyoming offense this year as the Cowboys look to go bowling
Reasons for Optimism: 14 returning starters include QB Karsten Sween, HBs Devin Moore and Wynell Seldon, the entire 2-deep OL (91 career starts), the entire DL, leading tackler LB Ward Dobbs, and both safeties.
Concerns: The Cowboys have made a point to struggle in the second half of years ruining good starts, and they must avoid this again this year – how they finish following a stretch of trips to New Mexico and TCU sandwiching a home game against Utah will determine if Wyoming makes their first bowl since 2004.
UNLV
Last Year: 2-10 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Ryan Wolfe is one of three UNLV WRs that form one of the MWC’s best groups
Reasons for Optimism: The entire offense is pretty much back, including all 5 starters on a large OL and three of the league’s best WRs – Ryan Wolfe, Casey Flair, and Rodelin Anthony.
Concerns: Defense. LB Starr Fuimaono and SS Daryl Forte are back, and the DL should be solid, but there’s inexperience everywhere else. Plus, it’s UNLV: they have three MWC wins the past three seasons haven’t made a bowl since 2000.
AIR FORCE
Last Year: surprisingly 9-4, tough bowl loss – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
LB Hunter Altman and DE Ryan Kemp are two of just five returning starters for the Falcons in 2008
Reasons for Optimism: The DL is the strength for the Falcons, and, despite just 37 career returning starts, the OL has four guys back with starting experience, and the OL is generally good for AF.
Concerns: Many – just 8 returning starters. Four-year QB Shaun Carney is gone, as is do-everything RB Chad Hall and the backs and receivers will need replacements. The defensive back seven is inexperienced as well, and the Falcons may give up lots of points and big plays.
SAN DIEGO STATE
Last Year: 4-8 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
LB Russell Allen is a part of one of the MWC’s top LB corps
Reasons for Optimism: The Aztecs bring back six of the defensive back 7, and the DL that gave up 242 rushing yards/game last year should be better.
Concerns: QB Kevin O’Connell, who led SDSU in rushing last year as well (11 TDs), is gone, the Aztecs averaged only 104 yards rushing/game last year, and the top two WRs are gone. The Ol returns just 26 career starts. Can this team score?
COLORADO STATE
Last Year: 3-9 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
HB Gartrell Johnson will have to be big for a Ram offense under a new QB
Reasons for Optimism: HBs Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell are back behind an OL with 9 players back from last year’s two-deep. The LB corps of Ricky Brewer, Jeff Horinek, and Jake Pottorff return as well, as do the safeties – Mike Pagnotta (missed time last year) and Klint Kubiak.
Concerns: This will be the first year for the CSU program in the post-Sonny Lubick era. There will be two new CBs this year, and the Rams defense that allowed 31 points/game last year has to replace 6 starters.
The WAC has been living right the past two years – two undefeated regular seasons, two BCS bowls. However, I’m one of those who thinks if a WAC team runs the table this year, they absolutely should NOT play in a BCS bowl.
Look, the Boise State Fiesta Bowl win was an incredibly exciting game to watch, and such a great, great story. But what gets lost is the fact it was a once-in-a-lifetime deal. Boise needed to pull out every trick play in their playbook to beat Oklahoma. If they played 10 times, OU probably wins 8 or 9. Seriously. And it’s not like OU has the best bowl record lately – they’ve really struggled in BCS bowls lately.
Last year’s Hawaii debacle further proved this theory. 2006 Boise State crushed a 10-win Oregon State but barely beat San Jose State and had 7 point wins over Wyoming and Hawaii.
Last year’s Hawaii team played two I-AA teams, just one BCS team (4-9 Washington), and probably should have lost at Louisiana Tech (won in OT), trailed by 2 TDs late at San Jose State (won in OT), and needed late scores to beat Nevada and Washington. I had a pretty strong feeling that they didn’t belong in the Sugar Bowl.
Thankfully (well, not really), Georgia proved that fact, embarrassing Hawaii to the tune of a 41-10 whipping that the entire nation witnessed. I hope people begin to realize that WAC teams really don’t belong in the BCS. Hawaii obviously didn’t last year, but I will give Boise the benefit of the doubt.
TALE OF TWO BCS BOWLS: Boise State’s Fiesta Bowl thriller was much better for the WAC than Georgia’s utter dismantling of Hawaii this past January
Now, a new beginning of sorts for the league. Brennan graduated and head coach June Jones is at SMU. Boise State is two years from their run, so the league may be more wide open than it’s been recently. It wouldn’t surprise me if Fresno State or Nevada made a title run. Here’s a look.
BOISE STATE
Last Year: 10-3, upset in Hawaii Bowl – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Despite injuries, Ian Johnson still ran for over 1,000 yards last year and returns to lead Boise State to a WAC title
Last year Boise broke in a new QB, lost at Washington, at Hawaii, and East Carolina snuck up on them in the bowl game. They must break in a new QB this year – either redshirt Fr. Kellen Moore, Sr. Bush Hamdan or So. Mike Coughlin – but pretty much all the leading rushers and receivers from last year return, including HB Ian Johnson, who ran for nearly 1,100 yards and 16 TDs last season despite injuries. Leading WR Jeremy Childs comes back, but just one OL – G Andrew Woodruff – is back, a major question mark this year.
Seven defensive starters are back, including leading tackler LB Kyle Gingg. Five of the top 8 DL return and 2 LBs are back, but the secondary may have some questions as well, losing 2 starters. Boise still has a chance to run the table, as their toughest games are at Oregon and at Nevada (they get Hawaii and Fresno at home). Boise is an amazing 46-2 in the WAC since 2002.
FRESNO STATE
Last Year: a quiet 9-4, beating Georgia Tech in the bowl – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Lonyae Miller, along with leading ‘07 rusher Ryan Matthews, gives Fresno the top HB tandem in the WAC
Fresno has been a WAC staple in the last decade. Coach Pat Hill is well-known with his scheduling ambitions, and Fresno has earned respect for it. Last year they nearly beat Texas A&M on the road, and beat Kansas State at home and Georgia Tech in the bowl. Ten offensive starters return including QB Tom Brandstater, HBs Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller, and leading receivers WR Marlon Moore and TE Bear Pascoe. The OL has 91 career starts, tied for 15th in the nation.
Just 7 defensive starters return, and Fresno loses leading tackler LB Marcus Riley. 2 DL are back, 2 LBs are back, and 3 DBs are back. So. MLB Ben Jacobs is the leading returning tackler. Interesting schedule for the Bulldogs this year, opening at Rutgers, followed by hosting Wisconsin. They play at Toledo and UCLA as well, so Fresno could make some out-of-conference noise. They close with a trip to Boise, possibly deciding the WAC champion.
NEVADA
Last Year: 6-7, shutout in bowl – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick broke out against Boise State last year in a 4OT loss, and returns to lead Nevada to a fourth straight bowl
Last year Nevada outgained WAC opponents by 124 yards per game, and the brightest spot was the play of QB Colin Kaepernick, a true freshman who scored 25 total TDs last year. HB Luke Lippincott ran for over 1,400 yards and 15 TDs last year and returns, along with leading WR Marko Mitchell. Like Fresno State, Nevada has 91 career starts back on the OL.
Defensively the Pack gave up over 30 points a game, and just return 5 starters and lose 5 of the top 8 tacklers. LB Joshua Mauga returns though to anchor the defense. Head coach Chris Ault brings in three junior college players to help a secondary that lost 3 starters. Nevada has tough trips to Missouri and Hawaii and Fresno in the WAC. Known for creating the unique Pistol formation, Nevada should be bowling again this year.
HAWAII
Last Year: 12-1, crushed in the Sugar Bowl – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Hawaii LB Adam Leonard is one of just 8 returning starters as Hawaii starts over with new coach Greg McMackin
A new era for Hawaii begins this year. It culminated with a BCS bowl that Hawaii may wish they hadn’t endured. Gone are Colt Brennan, coach June Jones, and the top 4 WRs. QB Tyler Graunke should take over the reins of the offense, and he threw 10 TDs last year in garbage time against the weak teams Hawaii blew out and in the Nevada win. The RBs are back, but Hawaii doesn’t run the ball very much obviously. The OL should be fine however.
The defense just returns 4 starters as well, but two of them are top tackling LBs from last year Solomon Elimimian and Adam Leonard. Just one DL and DB return though, and overall Hawaii is starting anew. The Warriors start this new era with a difficult trip to Gainesville to play Tebow and Company in 100+ degree heat, followed by a trip to Oregon State (who beat them in 2006) two weeks later.
NEW MEXICO STATE
Last Year: 4-9 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
After struggling with injuries last year, QB Chase Holbrook looks to run Hal Mumme’s pass-happy offense into NMSU’s first bowl since 1960
Hal Mumme should have his pass-happy offense fully, fully in place this year after NMSU ran the option offense prior to his arrival. QB Chase Holbrook returns after battling injuries last year, and his top two WRs Chris Williams and A.J. Harris are back. NMSU has to replace both Ts, but the other 3 OL return.
NSMU runs a 3-4, and have to replace 3 of the front 7. LBs Jamar Cotton, La’auli Fonoti, and Chris Nwoko return, along with FS Derrick Richardson, who had 108 tackles last year, second on the team. The defense is the key to success for the Aggies, who obviously have the typical potent Hal Mumme offense. It may require an upset of some sort for NMSU to make their first bowl since 1960.
SAN JOSE STATE
Last Year: 5-7 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Along with HB Yonus Davis, WR Kevin Jurovich is the only returning stud for San Jose State
San Jose State probably should have beat both of the WAC’s BCS teams the past two years, blowing late leads at home against Boise in ‘06 and Hawaii last year. The biggest task is replacing the career Spartan passing leader QB Adam Tafralis, but QB Kyle Reed transfers in from Cal. A major question for the offense was answered when HB Yonus Davis was granted a sixth year by the NCAA. The leading receivers are back, including Kevin Jurovich, a 1,100-yd, 9 TD WR last year. 3 OL are back, and two transfers – Isaac Leatiota from Cal and Bradis McGriff from Arizona State – should help there.
Six defensive starters return, but the top 2 LBs have departed. The leading returning tackler is CB Christopher Owens, but SS Jonathan Harris was suspended indefinitely in the spring and is not on the roster when I checked the SJSU site. The DL should be strong, but the LBs are a question mark. Depending on Reed’s play, SJSU could be either be a darkhorse or really struggle this year.
LOUISIANA TECH
Last Year: 5-7 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
After a surprising 5-7 2007, LB Quin Harris looks to lead Louisiana Tech to a potential bowl game
Tech surprised some folks last year but got smacked at Nevada in the finale with a bowl bid up for grabs. They’ll need a QB this year, and Georgia Tech transfer Taylor Bennett could provide that. HBs Patrick Jackson and Daniel Porter combined for over 1,500 yards last year and 14 rushing TDs. Seven OL that have started before return as well, so LT could improve offensively after being in the bottom tier last year.
The defense returns just 5 starters, but two of them are FS Antonio Baker and LB Quin Harris, who led the Bulldogs in tackles last year. A couple of JUCO players, including former Tennessee DT signee Rolando Melancon, come in to help the DL, the LBs are stout and 3 DBs return. LT lost 35 starts to injury last year too. They open with a rare home game against Mississippi State, perhaps an upset there could catapult Tech into a bowl game in just coach Derek Dooley’s second year.
IDAHO
Last Year: 1-11 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Idaho returns 10 offensive starters, including HB Deonte Jackson
The bottom of the WAC is really weak, and Idaho and Utah State have been living there, even before when they were in the Sun Belt. However the Vandals lose just 11 letterman from last year, and return 10 offensive starters. So. QB Nathan Enderle had a rough freshman year, dealing with 18 INTs (just 10 TDs) and injuries. Leading HB Deonte Jackson returns, as do the top WRs, and the OL returns 110 career starts, 5th in all of I-A.
The defense, however, returns just 4 starters. Five of the top 6 tacklers are gone, save SS Shiloh Keo. The LBs are a question mark, and this defense gave up 37 points a game last year, so who knows if they can stop anybody this year.
UTAH STATE
Last Year: 2-10 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule
Utah State LB Paul Igboeli was the WAC Freshman of the Year last year
Utah State actually enters 2008 on a two-game winning streak. However their best two offensive players – QB Leon Jackson and WR Kevin Robinson – have to be replaced. HB Derrvin Speight returns behind 4 OL (and 8 of the top 10) that are back.
However reasons for hope – 9 defensive starters return, including last year’s leading tackler LB Jake Hutton and WAC Freshman of the Year LB Paul Igboeli. The DL will benefit from a couple JUCO signees, and the entire secondary is back. Another tough year is ahead in spite of this – the Aggies play at UNLV, at Oregon, Utah and BYU out of conference this year.
Tennessee starts its fall camp Saturday, which means it’s really really close to being football season. The already high anticipation level just continues to rise, as it’s officially less than a month until we have college football again – that is, if you count the opening Thursday night games.
I’m doing my part, embarking on a long, long journey through all the conferences and all the teams in I-A and how they look heading into the season. Yes that’s right, I’m tackling this task with reckless abandon – 21 days straight of conference preview posts.
Some notes about these previews: first, I get most of my information on who’s back for which teams from Phil Steele’s magazine. Yes, he picked Tennessee behind South Carolina in the East (absurd if you ask me) but there’s too much straight information in that book for me to not use. So thank you Phil.
Secondly, I realized as I began writing these that these posts will be quite long. Honestly, I don’t expect anybody to read every word on these posts – if you’re just looking for a quick overview, read my introducing words, and look at the pictures and captions (there’s one for each team).
However, if you’re the betting type and need to know about a particular team you might not know much about, this could help. Also, if for example you’re a Gator fan wanting to know what Hawaii will look like without June Jones and Colt Brennan, or a UGA fan looking to see what kind of challenge to expect from Central Michigan, then just check out those particular teams in the previews. The plan is to do more in-depth previews of Tennessee’s opponents the week leading up to those games.
That said, I must admit the posts will get better as I go along, since obviously I’m going to know more, and likewise have more opinions about, the BCS conference teams than the non-BCS leagues. The BCS conference posts will be less structured and less boring facts, and will have more pictures, YouTube documentations, and biased-but-supposedly-objective musings from my own head.
Here’s the actual schedule. The fun of this journey begins Friday and concludes the Thursday the week before the season gets going…
Aug 1: Army/Navy Aug 2: MAC West Aug 3: MAC East Aug 4: Sun Belt
Aug 5: WAC Aug 6: C-USA West Aug 7: C-USA East Aug 8: MWC
Aug 9: Big East Aug 10: ACC Coastal Aug 11: ACC Atlantic Aug 12: Big Ten
Aug 13: Big 12 North Aug 14: Big 12 South Aug 15: Pac-10
The SEC gets its own week more or less, with an East team being paired with its yearly West opponent for six straight days, culminating with my take on my beloved Volunteers. I would imagine those posts would be the best out of all of the previews. Those will go as follows:
Aug 16: Vandy/Ole Miss
Aug 17: South Carolina/Arkansas
Aug 18: Kentucky/Mississippi State
Aug 19: Georgia/Auburn
Aug 20: Florida/LSU
Aug 21: Tennessee/Alabama
