Ho-Hum Pac 10…

…once again, the USC Trojans are the heavy favorite to win the Pac 10 for the seventh-straight year and have finished in the Top 5 the past six years.

As you’ve probably heard about a thousand times if you watch ESPN, they are absolutely loaded with talent with players like HBs Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable and WRs like Vidal Hazelton, Patrick Turner, and David Ausberry. There is just one returning OL, but they had plenty of injuries last year and have – surprise, surprise – talented players there.

Despite some losses, USC might have one of the best defenses in the nation, led by LBs Rey Maualuga (#58) and Brian Cushing (#10) and safeties Taylor Mays and Keith Ellison. Even with the losses of Keith Rivers, Lawrence Jackson, and Sedrick Ellis, the Trojan front will be fine.

After having to play the league’s top contenders – Oregon, Cal, Arizona State – on the road last year, the “toughest” league games for USC this year are at Oregon State and UCLA. That said, they have the showdown with Ohio State September 13, and a tricky little trip to Virginia to open the season.

That game just got a bit trickier due to the injury to Mark Sanchez. If Sanchez, who started the Arizona, Notre Dame, and Oregon games last year, can’t go, former Arkansas QB Mitch Mustain would be the guy.

All that said, USC hasn’t exactly dominated the league like everyone seems to think they have. Granted, the Pac 10 pretty much is USC. The Trojans have split with Cal (2006) and Arizona State (2007) the past two years, losing two league games each year. Here’s two more reasons that mess up the Trojan total domination myth:

Each of the Trojans’ league losses the past two years – Oregon State and UCLA in 2006 and Stanford last year – except for the Oregon game last year USC had no business losing. To be honest, while USC might have been playing the best football of any team at the end of last year, I just have a feeling they will lose another game like that this year – a game they will be favored in and should absolutely win.

Not only that, but if Dennis Dixon doesn’t blow out his knee against Arizona, USC doesn’t even win the Pac 10. Oregon would have and I believe they would have played for the Title and Dixon might have won the Heisman. I honestly hated to see that happen for Oregon, who lost their last three games before recovering in the Sun Bowl rout of USF.

I hated to see Dennis Dixon get hurt the way he did last year, and Oregon fans can only dream what could have happened if not for this injury to the Ducks’ star

Oregon loses Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, but still may be USC’s top challenger. The Ducks return most of their best defenders – SS Patrick Chung, CBs Walter Thurmond and Jairus Byrd, LBs Jerome Boyd and John Bacon, and DEs Will Tukuafu and Nick Reed. They also have one of the better OLs in the league as well to block for HBs Andre Crenshaw and Jeremiah Johnson and whoever the QB will be to find WR Jaison Williams and TE Ed Dickson.

Cal was 5-0 last year after rolling Tennessee and winning via a fumbled sure-TD-turned-touchback in Autzen, and after LSU had lost to Kentucky, the #2 Bears were poised to take over the top spot. But this play arguably sent their season completely down the tube…

I can’t lie, I laughed hysterically when I watched this live. Cal wasn’t laughing then or any the rest of the year – the Bears won just one of the last six and barely edged Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. Cal returns just four offensive starters, and lose pretty much all their WRs, but have both Kevin Riley and Nate Longshore back and the OL has been very good, led by 2006 and 2007 1st Team All-Pac 10 C Alex Mack.

HB Jahvid Best, much-remembered by us Tennessee fans, may be the best returning skill player for the Golden Bears

The LB corps of Worrell Williams, Zach Follett and Anthony Felder will lead the defense which returns eight starters. They have five league home games so they should still finish in the league’s top tier.

Arizona State was horribly overrated last year, as USC showed when they pasted the Sun Devils 44-24 Thanksgiving night. The best team they beat record-wise was 9-4 Oregon State, and they were blasted by the three best teams they played (Oregon with Dixon, SC, and Texas in the Holiday Bowl), and had to overcome double-digit deficits five times.

All the skill players pretty return, but the OL was just awful last year, allowing 58 sacks, the second-highest in the country. They return just 33 career starts on the OL this year as well, so QB Rudy Carpenter hopefully can survive getting killed another year. Arizona State should be slightly better defensively with seven starters back. Obviously we’ll see how good ASU will be when they host Georgia September 20.

For Arizona, it’s pretty simple: head coach Mike Stoops better at least make a bowl this year, or he will be looking for a job. They have had late season home wins over Top 10 teams each of the past three years: #7 UCLA in 2005, #8 Cal in 2006, and #2 Oregon last year. However they have seen Arizona State end their bowl hopes each of those years.

QB Willie Tuitama and his favorite target WR Mike Thomas return for Arizona, as Mike Stoops may be in his final year

Ten offensive starters return including most of last years’ production. However, they have to replace their entire defensive front and both CBs, including Antoine Cason (Oregon and Cal fans remember him).

Most won’t know this, but Oregon State has the second-most wins in the Pac 10 the past two years (14). After going 9-4 with the nation’s best rush defense last year, OSU has to replace eight defensive starters. OSU will have to rely on SS Al Afalava and CBs Keenan Lewis and Brandon Hughes while the entirely new front seven gets their feet wet.

Seven offensive starters will help, and the Beavers “replace” departed HB Yvenson Bernard with WR Sammie Stroughter, the speedy WR and punt returner who missed last year. A couple of JUCO additions should help the losses along the OL that will need to protect QB Sean Canfield, who missed time last year too with injuries.

Tennessee’s opening opponent UCLA can’t catch a break. After losing QBs Patrick Cowan and Ben Olson on the same day in non-contact practice drills, Olson has injured himself again and will miss two months. JUCO QB Kevin Craft will likely be the new starter. Playmakers HB Khalil Bell and WRs Dominique Johnson, Marcus Everett, and Terrance Austin and TE Logan Paulsen should help, but the OL is a huge question mark with plenty of youth and inexperience, returning just C Micah Reed.

JUCO transfer Kevin Craft will likely start the season as the Bruin QB after unfortunate injuries to Patrick Cowan and Ben Olson in spring and preseason practices

Defensively, coordinator Dwayne Walker was retained by new coach Rick Neuheisel for good reason – he’s one of the better defensive coaches in football. The front seven with LBs Reggie Carter and Kyle Bosworth should be strong, but the secondary has some holes to fill. The schedule doesn’t help – the Bruins play the Vols and Fresno State at home, and travel to BYU.

Washington has some hope with So. QB Jake Locker, but there’s going to be new RBs and WRs, and the OL’s best player C Juan Garcia (subject of a great ESPN article) may or may not be healthy for this year. The LBs and secondary will be the defense’s strength, but the Huskies gave up over 30 points/game last year. Like Arizona, there’s pressure on Ty Willingham to make the postseason in 2008.

FS Bo McNally had the sealing INT in Stanford’s epic upset over 41-point favorite USC last year

Stanford stunned USC last year and beat Cal, but the had a typical Cardinal year in 2007. They do have 16 starters returning including QB Tavita Pritchard, HBs Anthony Kimble and Toby Berhart, WR Richard Sherman, and possibly Stanford’s best OL in years. They have nine defensive starters back, including all the LBs, the top three safeties, and 10 of the top 11 tacklers from ‘07. Another upset or two here or there, and Stanford could sneak into a bowl game this year.

Finally, Washington State hasn’t been to a bowl since 2003 and fired Bill Doba to bring in former Eastern Washington coach Paul Wulff. The Cougars will have to replace QB Alex Brink, but return an experienced OL, HB Dwight Tardy, and WR Brandon Gibson. The defense returns eight starters and the Cougars, despite the transition, have a slight chance at getting back to a bowl game.

While USC may be the best team in the nation, 2008 might be a “down” year for the Pac 10, with the new faces. While I would say it was the second-best last year, that should be the Big 12 this year.

The Best of the Non-BCS: Mountain West

Yes, I know the WAC has put two teams into BCS bowls the past two seasons, but I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that the Mountain West has NOT been the best non-BCS league the last few years, especially since TCU joined the league in 2005.

I’m one of those that believes the top tier of this league – BYU, Utah, and TCU – could hang if they were in a BCS conference. The league has done pretty well in such head-to-head games: the MWC won 7 games against BCS teams from last year, the same number as the SEC and Big East (not including bowl games).

Utah had two such wins, crushing UCLA and winning at Louisville. BYU beat Arizona and also beat UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl after losing in Pasadena in September. The other four wins? TCU shutout Baylor, New Mexico won at Arizona, Wyoming thumped Virginia, and Air Force smoked Notre Dame. Granted, those wins are over some pretty bad teams, but still, I feel BYU, Utah, and TCU would be middle-of-the-pack type teams if they were in a BCS conference (other than the SEC, probably).

The MWC had 7 wins against BCS teams last year (tied for the most) and Utah had two, including a romp over UCLA

Since 2005, when TCU joined the MWC, those three teams have been consistently at the top of the standings. I know Air Force finished second last year at 6-2 (TCU was just 4-4), but coming into 2008 there’s a pretty significant drop-off between those three and the middle of the league.

BYU has won the MWC the past two seasons, going 11-2 and winning the Las Vegas Bowl in both years. Some media outlets have BYU in the preseason top 15, and many think the Cougars, with nine returning starters on a very potent offense, may be the non-BCS Cinderella team this year. The schedule at first glance looks compatible, but among trips to Washington, Utah, and TCU (BYU also hosts UCLA), there’s a loss in there.

BYU has won two straight MWC titles and, thanks to this blocked FG as time expired, two straight Las Vegas Bowls over Pac-10 opponents

For Utah, injuries to QB Brian Johnson (missed all of 2005 and parts of last year) have adversely effected the Utes’ MWC title hopes in the past. Despite losing 51 starts last year due to injury, the Utes still managed to go 9-4 and win their 7th consecutive bowl game, the second-longest such streak in college football (Boston College leads with 8).

Utah’s been a little inconsistent however – in a three-game stretch last year, Utah lost at home to Air Force, smoked UCLA (#11 at that time), and were then shutout at UNLV (the Rebels’ only conference win). Utah has lost to BYU on the final possession the past two years, but get the Cougars at home (TCU too) in the season finale. Utah could very well upset Michigan in the opener, and also host Oregon State. So while BYU garners more national preseason attention, Utah could very well be the Boise State/Hawaii of 2008.

BYU beat Utah 33-31 in 2006 like this…

…and last year with these two plays down 10-9 late in the game

TCU won the MWC in its first year of being in the league, going undefeated in 2005 with an 11-1 record including a win at Oklahoma (they visit Norman this year as well) and a top 15 finish. The Frogs were just 4-4 last year, but outscored MWC opponents by 67 points. With the most returning starters and potentially the best defense in the MWC, TCU is also in the mix for a league title. The red flag, though, is TCU is just 1-5 in Thursday games the last 3 years, and play BYU at home and at Utah – both on Thursdays.

Behind these three teams, though, it gets a little murky. New Mexico has been consistently decent under head coach Rocky Long, with a seven-year streak of being bowl-eligible. However, the Lobos return just 10 starters this year, though two of them are QB Donovan Porterie and HB Rodney Ferguson. Air Force went 6-2 last year thanks to a 3-1 record in games decided by 8 points or less, but they return just 8 starters under second-year head coach Troy Calhoun, including having to replace QB Shaun Carney and the top 6 rushers from last year.

Air Force was a surprise, finishing second last year with a win at Notre Dame, but the Falcons should struggle this season

Wyoming has gone 6-6 and 5-7 the past two seasons, but return 8 offensive starters. Despite just a 5-13 record the second half of the past three years, Wyoming could be the league’s fourth-best team in ‘08, which would have them bowling. UNLV has won just three MWC the past three seasons, but return 14 starters – nine on offense – and get Wyoming, Air Force, and New Mexico all at home.

San Diego State returns just 11 starters – just three on offense (the Aztecs lose their leading passer, rushers, and top two WRs) – from a 4-8 team. SDSU likely won’t win a MWC road game (TCU, New Mexico, Wyoming, BYU) and should be in the league’s bottom half. Steve Fairchild replaces longtime coach Sonny Lubick at Colorado State, and the Rams must find a new QB, new WRs, and replace six starters on a defense that allowed 31 points/game last season.

Here’s a little more in-depth look…

UTAH
Last Year: 9-4, won opening bowl game – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

HB Darrell Mack looks to lead Utah to an MWC title and possible BCS Bowl in ‘08

Reasons for Optimism: QB Brian Johnson and HB Darrell Mack, both 2nd Team All-MWC last year, return, along with WRs Marquis Wilson and Bradon Godfrey and 83 career OL starts. Three of last year’s tackles leaders – LB Stevenson Sylvester and DEs Koa Misi and Paul Kruger – and both CBs return. Host both BYU and TCU.

Concerns: LB depth – Utah did not recruit any – is a concern. Can the Utes avoid injury bug this year? Can Johnson start every game? Utah also has to find a way to finish off BYU.

BYU
Last Year: 11-2, MWC Champs, 2nd straight Vegas Bowl win – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

Returning QB Max Hall leads a potent BYU offense that has many calling for a Cougar three-peat and a BCS Bowl

Reasons for Optimism: QB Max Hall, HB Harvey Unga (over 1,200 yards last year), top two receivers (WR Austin Collie and TE Dennis Pitta), 4 OL starters all return to form what should be the league’s best offense. The projected starting OL averages 326 lbs, and the Cougars have one of the best DL in the league as well.

Question Marks: Only 3 defensive starters – not including DE Jan Jorgensen and MLB David Nixon – are back, the LBs are inexperienced and BYU will have an entirely new secondary. They play Utah and TCU both on the road.

TCU
Last Year: 8-5, won Texas Bowl – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

TCU HB Aaron Brown battled through injuries last year, but looks to lead the Horned Frogs to their second MWC title since joining the league in 2005

Reasons for Optimism: 15 Frog starters return (including QB Andy Dalton, HBs Aaron Brown and Joseph Turner, 4 full-time OL starters, 3 DL, and both CBs), the most in the MWC. TCU always has good defenses.

Concerns: TCU’s lost 8 games since joining the MWC, 5 of which were Thursday games. TCU plays Utah and BYU on Thursdays this year. Despite that, I see no real weakness – solid team everywhere.

NEW MEXICO
Last Year: 9-4, won home bowl game – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

HB Rodney Ferguson, 1st Team All-MWC the past two years, looks to lead UNM to another bowl game in 2008

Reasons for Optimism: UNM is the only MWC team to have 6+ wins for 7 straight years. QB Donovan Porterie and 1st Team All-MWC HB Rodney Ferguson return, and the Lobos have one of the league’s top secondaries.

Concerns: Just 10 returning starters – the front seven is filled with inexperience and there are just 14 career starts returning in the 3-deep OL, the second lowest in I-A.

WYOMING
Last Year: 5-7 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

Wyoming HB Devin Moore should be part of a solid Wyoming offense this year as the Cowboys look to go bowling

Reasons for Optimism: 14 returning starters include QB Karsten Sween, HBs Devin Moore and Wynell Seldon, the entire 2-deep OL (91 career starts), the entire DL, leading tackler LB Ward Dobbs, and both safeties.

Concerns: The Cowboys have made a point to struggle in the second half of years ruining good starts, and they must avoid this again this year – how they finish following a stretch of trips to New Mexico and TCU sandwiching a home game against Utah will determine if Wyoming makes their first bowl since 2004.

UNLV
Last Year: 2-10 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

Ryan Wolfe is one of three UNLV WRs that form one of the MWC’s best groups

Reasons for Optimism: The entire offense is pretty much back, including all 5 starters on a large OL and three of the league’s best WRs – Ryan Wolfe, Casey Flair, and Rodelin Anthony.

Concerns: Defense. LB Starr Fuimaono and SS Daryl Forte are back, and the DL should be solid, but there’s inexperience everywhere else. Plus, it’s UNLV: they have three MWC wins the past three seasons haven’t made a bowl since 2000.

AIR FORCE
Last Year: surprisingly 9-4, tough bowl loss – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

LB Hunter Altman and DE Ryan Kemp are two of just five returning starters for the Falcons in 2008

Reasons for Optimism: The DL is the strength for the Falcons, and, despite just 37 career returning starts, the OL has four guys back with starting experience, and the OL is generally good for AF.

Concerns: Many – just 8 returning starters. Four-year QB Shaun Carney is gone, as is do-everything RB Chad Hall and the backs and receivers will need replacements. The defensive back seven is inexperienced as well, and the Falcons may give up lots of points and big plays.

SAN DIEGO STATE
Last Year: 4-8 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

LB Russell Allen is a part of one of the MWC’s top LB corps

Reasons for Optimism: The Aztecs bring back six of the defensive back 7, and the DL that gave up 242 rushing yards/game last year should be better.

Concerns: QB Kevin O’Connell, who led SDSU in rushing last year as well (11 TDs), is gone, the Aztecs averaged only 104 yards rushing/game last year, and the top two WRs are gone. The Ol returns just 26 career starts. Can this team score?

COLORADO STATE
Last Year: 3-9 – 2007 Schedule – 2008 Schedule

HB Gartrell Johnson will have to be big for a Ram offense under a new QB

Reasons for Optimism: HBs Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell are back behind an OL with 9 players back from last year’s two-deep. The LB corps of Ricky Brewer, Jeff Horinek, and Jake Pottorff return as well, as do the safeties – Mike Pagnotta (missed time last year) and Klint Kubiak.

Concerns: This will be the first year for the CSU program in the post-Sonny Lubick era. There will be two new CBs this year, and the Rams defense that allowed 31 points/game last year has to replace 6 starters.

Big Orange Roundtable #5

Yep, I’m the new guy. The Vol bloggers started the Roundtable early in July and it’s been a resounding success. And now they’ve asked me to join them, so thanks guys for the kind addition. Also, thanks to lawvol at Gate 21 for giving me the nice little logo in the above picture.

If you’re not familiar how this works, one of the ten Vol blogs hosts the Roundtable, coming up with questions and answering them. The rest of us then respond and that’s when it gets interesting.

Anyways, Thomas the Terrible over at YMSWWC (Your Mother Slept With Wilt Chamberlain) hosts this week, and he’s all about hating on Alabama, which is totally cool with me.

(1) One former VOL made the brave choice to testify against some Bammers and has to enter witness protection with a whole new identity, but that also gives him 4 more years of eligibility. Which VOL would you pick and why?

An obvious choice would be one of Tennessee’s great defensive linemen of the recent decade or so – such as YMSWWC’s choice Albert Haynesworth, Leonard Little, John Henderson, Jesse Mahelona, anybody who nearly killed Brodie Croyle 2003-2005, and many more I’m leaving out.

Of course another obvious choice is Peyton Manning because, well, he’s Peyton Manning. But that’s too easy of answer for me to take.

That said, I’m gonna go old-school (for me at least) with Jay Graham, because he broke the Bammers’ hearts two straight years, and I think he just scored on the Tide again. Proof…

(the particular highlights start at 0:53)

I understand we have excellent HBs already, so I picked Graham more for his Bama ownage than the need for him to return for four more years (though he was a great Vol). I’m all for Bama ownage and I’m expecting some this year after seeing last year’s debacle live and in person (I was at the Florida game too…ouch).

(2) Alabama has been given the death penalty and is forced to leave the SEC, at the same time South Carolina decides it can win a lot more in the Sunbelt conference and bolts the SEC. Two teams have to take their place who would you like to see take their place?

South Carolina in the Sun Belt…classic. I think the common answer here will be for Clemson to replace the Gamecocks. Clemson is basically Auburn anyways (been to both).

Clemson’s had the most success of any ACC team in the recruiting battles against the SEC schools, and they have SEC-type talent. When I look at Clemson, I see an SEC school that’s out of place in the ACC. I would love for Tennessee to play the Tigers avenge the garbage of the ‘03 Peach Bowl.

My second choice might get me kicked off the Roundtable: I’ll go with Memphis. I’m from there, and I’ve had to deal with Tiger fans for my entire life. In fact, my first memory of Tennessee losing was the Memphis game in 1996 when I watched in horror as the Tiger fans tore down both goalposts. That shouldn’t have happened and here’s proof (at 0:27)…

They like to talk about how they should be in the SEC, especially with basketball, and I’d like to see them try and end up at as the worst athletic program in the league because that’s what would happen.

Driving around town, I’ve seen my fair share of 21 17 license plates, and plenty shirts as well, from that one time Tennessee lost to Memphis. I also had a couple Memphis fans talk trash about Tennessee in football after our 2005 bowl-less season, and I kindly reminded him that we still beat them.

This choice is more for basketball. That’s two wins for Bruce over the tool Calipari every year and the Tigers have been using their garbage C-USA schedule to get 1-seeds and 30 wins per season. And I hate the basketball program about 250 times more than the football program.

(3) What will be the toughest road game to win and why?

UCLA will be tough because it’s across the country and that didn’t go so well last year. There’s Georgia, where Tennessee will likely be the blackout game with the revenge factor from the past two beatdowns. Then there’s South Carolina, and though it’s always a tough battle in Columbia, it’s South Carolina. Vanderbilt isn’t a “road” game.

I’ll pick Auburn. Jordan-Hare is always a difficult place to play, and we haven’t exactly done well against the Tigers the last few times we’ve played. I know there’s the more familiarity/hate factor with UGA and Carolina, but I’m still going to go with Auburn. We know how to beat UGA and Carolina has no QB.

Not only that, but this game’s after the Florida game, which, barring an inexplicable loss to UCLA, should be an epic, a bigger game than Cal was in 2006. A big win or close loss by Tennessee could really effect the Auburn visit next week. I know Auburn hosts LSU the week before, but it seems it’s always tougher to play a big home game then go on the road into a hostile environment.

(4) Could have the great Coach Fulmer handled himself better at the SEC media event when he was asked about the subpoena instead of asking what subpoena?

Probably, but I feel that in this particular situation it’s more on Fulmer’s PR guys and Tennessee’s media people to take care of that. Coach is there to talk football, he’s not thinking about getting a subpoena.

Had he been told about it by his people, he then should have publicly ripped the childish antics of the parties involved in embarrassing him. There’s a professional way to serve a subpoena and throwing an envelope at the targeted person doesn’t count as professional.

And in a way, he’s still got some responding to do: he has a successful year – another trip to Atlanta and breaking the drought would be nice, and NO blowouts – and any ill effects from the crap in Birmingham will be obviously forgotten.

Here’s the other Vol blogs, check back as I link their responses once they’re available. Please go read their answers and do it NOW!

- YMSWWC
- 3rd Saturday in Blogtober
- The World According to MoonDog
- Fulmer’s Belly
- Loser With Socks
- The Power T
- Rocky Top Talk
- SouthEastern Sports Blog
- Gate 21