Change Is Gonna Come?

Similar to the hierarchy of the SEC East with Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee, the Big 12 South has been pretty clear-cut for the most part of the last decade. Since Nebraska’s decline, it’s been all about Oklahoma and Texas not only in the South, but in the entire Big 12.

Behind the Horns and Sooners, each and every year it’s a toss-up between Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State, and Baylor is pretty much always last.

However, there’s quite a bit of preseason hype that Texas Tech could very well break through and change that. At first, I look at Texas Tech and see an obviously always strong offense that passes every down and puts up a lot of points, but where’s the defense? And it’s Texas Tech – certainly they pull off a big win once a year, but can they really make a run at bigger, better things?

So obviously my curiosity forced me to look more into Texas Tech and why the thought is they have a chance to not only finish ahead of Texas, but actually win the South. Here’s some things I found:

Why they can win it: As I said before, I wouldn’t want to face that offense. QB Graham Harrell continues the recent run of record-shattering QBs and enters his third year as the starter. The group of receiving threat RBs is there – Shannon Woods, Kobey Lewis, Aaron Crawford, and Baron Batch.

Harrell’s favorite target, the Biletnikoff winner Michael Crabtree will try to match his astonishing freshman season where he had nearly 2,000 yards and caught 22 TDs. They lose Danny Amendola, but WR is never really a problem for Texas Tech. They also return (the two-deep completely intact) a very large OL that only gave up 18 sacks last year, second in the country (to Tennessee).

Of course we know about the offense, but what about defense? Defensive coordinator Lyle Setencich resigned after a 49-45 loss at Oklahoma State, and after Ruffin McNeill took over the Red Raiders actually led the Big 12 in total defense over the last 8 games. They also return 8 starters, including the entire front four.

Then there’s Tech’s traditionally very weak schedule. Out of conference, Texas Tech plays Eastern Washington and Massachusetts, two I-AA schools, SMU (1-11 last year), and travel to Nevada, which could be a tricky game, but Nevada’s not gonna stop Harrell and Company. They do travel to Kansas State, Texas A&M, Kansas, and Oklahoma, but get Texas at home.

Why they won’t win it: Simple – they’re Texas Tech. They’re just 35-29 in the Big 12 the last eight years under Mike Leach. Texas has beaten the Red Raiders the last five years. Colorado has beaten Texas Tech the past two seasons (CU isn’t on the schedule this year).

Texas Tech has lost to Colorado 30-6 and 31-26 the past two seasons, but the Red Raiders don’t face the Buffs in ‘08

Also, I think a good bit of the optimism for Texas Tech stems from the win over Oklahoma in their finale, but Sam Bradford got hurt early in that game. In the Gator Bowl, Tech trailed 28-14 to Virginia, without their QB Jameel Sewell in the 4th quarter, before coming back and winning at the end.

All that said, I’m gonna call the bluff on Texas Tech – third place again.

Oklahoma is once again the Big 12 favorite and a National Title contender. They’ve been great in the regular season but have struggled in BCS Bowls, most notably the blowout to USC, the Boise State upset, and getting run over by West Virginia.

QB Sam Bradford broke the record for the most TD passes as a freshman last year and he hopes to continue that this year. The Sooners lose Malcolm Kelly, but WR Joaquin Iglesias, TE Jermaine Gresham, and WRs Manuel Johnson and Quentin Chaney should make up for Kelly’s loss. Also, OU returns their entire OL, the most experienced (130 career starts) and also one of the biggest in the entire country.

HB Allen Patrick is gone, but there’s little worry in Norman because DeMarco Murray now becomes the Sooners’ feature back. Murray averaged 6 yards/carry last year and is really, really good. Here’s proof:

Yes, I know it was Baylor, but that’s pretty sick. HB Chris Brown comes back as well, and he scored 9 rushing TDs last year. Defensively, just five starters return, but the DL may be one of the nation’s best. The secondary, only returning SS Nic Harris, is the main concern. OU is generally very good defensively, even though WVU ran over, through, and around them in the Fiesta Bowl.

I would argue that Texas has underachieved the last few years – or any year they haven’t had Vince Young. For all the talent that’s in Texas and neighboring Louisiana, and just having to worry about OU in the conference, I would expect they should have more than two conference titles under Mack Brown (1996, 2005). That said, they have had double-digit wins the last 7 years.

“What?! I can’t bring Vince back?!? He’s the only way I can win beat OU and win the Big 12!!

The Longhorns struggled last year more than their final ranking of #10 may have said. They were outgained by Arkansas State, trailed in the 4th against UCF, trailed in the 3rd against TCU, were hammered by Kansas State at home, lost to OU, trailed both Nebraska and Oklahoma State, and lost to A&M for the second straight year.

They did bounce back by hammering overrated Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl. QB Colt McCoy returns, but Texas has to replace HB Jamaal Charles and find some new WRs. The OL returns lots of experience, and may be one of the best in the country.

Defensively, Texas gave up 25 points/game last year, the most since 2003 (21) and has to find seven more starters. While the replacements are certainly talented, there’s some inexperience there and depth at some areas may be concerns.

Oklahoma State, with dual-threat QB Zac Robinson returning with two big targets WR Dez Bryant and TE Brandon Pettigrew (they lose Adarius Bowman though) and a very experienced OL, could actually be better than the 7-6 they were last year. They are strong in the defensive back seven, and the front four has some good players that are a little inexperienced.

That said, being in the same division as Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech means OSU will probably do no better standings-wise than in the past.

Texas A&M brings in Mike Sherman, a hire that I’m not so sure was a good one. They do have QB Stephen McGee and HB combo Jorvorksie Lane (#11) and Mike Goodson (#3) back, but some WR losses and a very inexperienced OL could cause problems.

TAMU may go to a 3-3-5 lineup because the secondary is their strength and they return just one player from the front seven, though there are some talented guys along the DL. With the new coach in and the issues along the lines, I would say a bowl game would be a reasonable goal for Sherman in his first year.

Baylor is, well, Baylor. Offensively the Bears have a bunch of experience returning and defensively the Bears probably won’t be any different than in previous years. There’s hope for improvement as Art Briles comes in from Houston, and he had a good run while with the Cougars.

That said, Baylor plays in arguably the second-toughest division in college football in addition to Missouri, Nebraska on the road, and Wake Forest and Washington State at home, and UConn on the road out of the Big 12. Same old same old for Baylor.